3 Reasons a Recall Will Fail

Tomorrow is a day anonymous blog commenters (ABCs) have been waiting for since election day.  It’s the first official day a recall affidavit can be filed with the election commission.  If an affidavit is filed tomorrow, the signature gathering wouldn’t actually begin until around the first of the year.

Mayor Jim Suttle is the most obvious target for a recall effort, but don’t be surprised if you see a recall affidavit filed against a council person or two.  I’ll examine three key reasons a recall effort against Mayor Suttle won’t gather the necessary signatures.

Reason #1 – 26,642

That’s the magic number.  Once the petition is circulated, organizers will have 30 days to collect 26,642 valid signatures from registered voters in Omaha.  In reality, upwards of 30,000 actual signatures will be needed to offset invalid signatures.

30,000 is no small number. A petition drive administered and executed by volunteers won’t pull this off.  Why? Take a look outside – it’s winter.  A petition effort with paid circulators may be a little more successful, but new laws in Nebraska banning pay-per-signature compensation works against the recall effort.  Send temporary paid circulators out in the middle of winter with no incentive to collect signatures and you have a recipe for disaster.

Reason #2 – No Smoking Gun

Mayor Suttle’s first several months in office have been bumpy. He won’t be getting any awards for his crisis management and public relation skills.  But there’s been no obvious impeachable offense.  I could create a long list of the amateurish blunders, but blunders rarely equal recall.

Where is the doomsday scenario that ABC’s predicted?  The city hasn’t declared bankruptcy and the trash is still getting picked up.  Forbes Magazine is so pessimistic about Omaha’s current situation that it named it the city fastest recovering from the recession.

With no smoking gun, there is no obvious and organized discontent among Omaha citizens.  This statement wouldn’t have been accurate during the budget battle.  Time is a huge asset on Suttle’s side.  If the recall effort had begun during the budget battle, it would have been much more successful.

When the recall effort is initiated, the person initiating the effort must provide (in sixty words or less) the reason or reasons for recall.  This language will be included on the petitions along with a sixty word or less defense statement from the mayor. It’ll be interesting to see how each statement is crafted.  (How long is 60 words?  This paragraph is 67 words).

Reason #3 – No Organized Support

Finally, we get to the most interesting reason why the recall will fail.

The Omaha World-Herald doesn’t want a recall and neither does the Chamber of Commerce.  You could legitimately question whether this matters since their influence over voters is questionable (neither supported Suttle), but a successful recall effort without their support is just that much more difficult.  Omaha is operating on a bare bones budget, and a successful recall could cost the city $1 million – money it doesn’t have.  You don’t think this would be a headline in the World-Herald?

Up until now, I haven’t really examined the “political” aspect of the recall.  Let’s get into some of the interesting political maneuvering behind a recall. (I’m only examining the maneuvering behind the collection of signatures.  If there’s actually a recall election, the political maneuvering on both sides would fill a book and a blog post.)

First, let’s take a look at which Democrats will publicly support the recall.  Well, that was quick.  If you haven’t heard, there are more Democrats in Omaha than Republicans.  A recall effort with no Democratic support is going to be awfully difficult.

There’s also no union support for a recall.  Most unions will publicly come out in opposition, and instruct members to avoid  petitions. A few unions may even try to actively thwart a recall effort.

The business community, unions, and the OWH don’t want it – that’s a rare trifecta.

So, what’s the Republican approach to this recall effort? Well, any strategy will be delicate and covert.

There is a pocket of Republicans that have been clamoring to recall the mayor since election day.  The ABC’s have been pounding away at their keyboards and drumming up support for a recall since election night.  (I believe that was also the same day the ABCs and a KFAB talk show host accused Suttle of being responsible for the death of a 4-year-old girl in a traffic accident. This is just evidence of how petty the initial push for a recall was.  The guy had barely finished his victory speech and the ABCs were looking into how quickly they can start collecting signatures.  Sorry for the aside).

There has been speculation that political positioning and fundraising for a recall began before Suttle even took office.

One of the most important questions is who will be the public “face” of a recall effort?  In order for the recall to succeed, it needs a charismatic and respected spokesperson. Why?  Because there’s no smoking gun.  There isn’t an organized discontent so Republicans will need a spokesperson to manufacture some.

This spokesperson needs to be prominent and respected when it comes to city politics and city issues.  This person doesn’t exist in the Republican Party.  It’s easy to find a prominent Omaha Republican and it’s easy to find a respected one; it’s not easy to find one that’s both.  This is a huge reason Republicans lost the mayor’s race in May.

Hal Daub and Jim Vokal, two of the most prominent leaders in the Omaha Republican Party have obvious deficiencies. Both have some ownership of the city’s problems and both lost to Mayor Suttle.  If either were to lead a recall effort, the term “sore loser” would be liberally thrown around.  In essence, they would be asking the citizens of Omaha to pay $1 million for a do-over – that’s not an easy sell.

Politically, it’s way too risky for any city council person to publicly support a recall. Jean Stothert may be the most likely, but even I can’t create a scenario where this makes sense for her.

Rep. Lee Terry has already indicated he won’t support a recall (you can take that for what it’s worth since Terry isn’t an Omaha resident).

Anyone willing to publicly push a recall has to make an extremely delicate political calculation.  Here are the questions every Republican is asking… What are the chances the recall effort collects enough signatures?  If it does, what are the chances voters actually recall the mayor?  If they recall the mayor, what are the chances a Republican is elected mayor?  Those are a lot of “ifs”.  If all those scenarios don’t work out, there is a 100% chance of the Republican looking like an idiot for supporting the recall.  Politics is hard!

The most likely scenario is a recall effort led by a crazy fringe Republican you’ve never heard of.  The recall will be privately supported by a long list of prominent Republicans too cowardly to publicly support it.  I’d be surprised if the recall effort collected 15,000 signatures.  If the recall succeeds, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong.

(Photo above courtesy of Old_Sarge)